Market rumors suggest a non-binding bid for Saxo Bank, owned by Mandatum

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/22/2024 at 6:34 am EEST.

According to a recent market rumor reported by Bloomberg News, potential buyers have emerged for Saxo Bank, which is partly owned by Mandatum. The rumored buyers are a consortium of American brokerage firm Interactive Brokers, Swedish private equity investor Altor and American private equity investor Centerbridge Partners. According to the sources, the consortium would have submitted a non-binding bid for the Saxo Bank shares. The Bloomberg report did not mention a possible purchase price.

The emergence of candidates a positive development

In terms of news value, this latest rumor is not dramatic, as the intentions of Saxo Bank's main shareholders to sell are already well known. In fact, to facilitate the process, Saxo hired investment bank Goldman Sachs in July to explore a possible sale or IPO. However, the emergence of potential buyers is a positive development as it helps to make the exit a reality.

Even better news for Mandatum shareholders would be if more parties showed interest in Saxo, as this would probably also increase the price tag of the transaction. Based on a market rumor reported by Reuters earlier this year, Saxo's value would stand at 1.5-2.0 BNEUR, which would imply a value of around 300-400 MEUR for Mandatum. Mandatum owns 19.8% of Saxo. In the most recent transaction, Saxo Bank was valued at around 1.3 BNEUR when one of the founders sold their stake in 2017. In this context, we think the range seems reasonable.

We have covered Saxo and its future sale in our Mandatum research and therefore the rumor has no effect on our view of the company. However, the transaction could have an impact on our estimate of Mandatum's value if Saxo's final price were to differ materially from the estimates currently in the air.