We have updated our short- and medium-term forecasts for H&M in light of the potential tariffs, expectations of slower economic growth and escalating uncertainty. In our view, the short-term multiples reflecting this are not particularly attractive. We therefore change our recommendation to Reduce (was Accumulate) and lower our target price to SEK 130 per share (was SEK 145), mainly due to lowered estimates.

H&M's Q1 earnings were weaker than expected, and we anticipate continued margin headwinds in Q2. However, we foresee revenue growth and a shift from gross margin headwinds to tailwinds starting in H2’25, leading to continued sales and margin improvements throughout 2026-27. We maintain our view that earnings growth and dividends offer a reasonable expected return and, therefore, reiterate our Accumulate recommendation with a slightly lowered target price of SEK 145 per share (previously SEK 150), reflecting lower short-term estimates.

We believe that the headwinds to gross margins, including price investments, increased markdowns, and negative impacts from external factors, have been stronger than earlier anticipated in H&M’s Q1 (Dec-Feb). As a result, we have lowered our earnings estimates. However, we still see earnings growth and dividends offering a good expected return, which, coupled with the declining valuation since our last research update (share price -9%), keeps the risk/reward ratio on the right side. Consequently, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation but lower our target price to SEK 150 per share (prev. SEK 160) due to lower estimates.

H&M's Q4 results beat our forecasts thanks to a strong gross margin. However, we kept our estimates largely intact and continue to see sales and margin improvement in 2025-26. We see earnings growth and dividends offering a reasonable expected return.

H&M will report its Q4’24 (September-November) results on Thursday at 8:00 am CEST. We expect slightly positive revenue growth both in local currencies and reported terms. However, we expect EBIT to decline year-on-year due to a slightly lower gross margin and stable opex/ sales. We expect a positive top line development for the beginning of the fiscal year 2025.

We believe consumer demand has remained subdued in H&M’s Q4 (Sep-Nov), although the strong September should support growth. We have lowered our margin assumptions for 2025 and beyond.