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Head of Research, Stables

Rasmus Køjborg

Sampo is a Nordic property and casualty insurer operating also in the UK and in the Baltics. In the Nordics, Sampo provides insurance services across all countries, customer segments and products. In the UK, the company offers motor and home insurance for private individuals. The Group is made up of If P&C, Topdanmark, Hastings, and the parent company Sampo plc. Sampo was founded in 1909 and it is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.

Sampo

NORDEN is an internationally operating shipping company with 12 global offices, headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark, and listed on  Nasdaq OMX Copenhagen. The company is present in the dry cargo and product tanker markets with a combination of operator and asset trading activities.

NORDEN’s trading-oriented business model is based on the two business units ‘Assets & Logistics’ and ‘Freight Services & Trading’ – dividing the business into asset trading and operator activities.

The company’s business activities are based on an asset-light trading strategy, only owning a small percentage (~5%) of its total operated vessel fleet consisting of close to 500 vessels. The agility of the business model enables NORDEN to continuously adjust short-term market exposure towards dry cargo and product tanker market developments while capitalizing on asset trading opportunities. In-house data and advanced analytics, risk management, and market research provide a data-driven approach to shipping, making proactive use of volatile markets.

Hej Philip & co.  Tak for indlægget med regnskab og din opfølgende analyse og tanker - dem læser jeg altid med stor fornøjelse ! Jeg har selv været lidt ude og rejse og har ikke kunnet følge med i så meget - men jeg glædede mig naturligvis over Nordens regnskab - men der var også et par overraskelser :   Net profitten på 744 mio. dollars var faktisk til den lidt lave ende i forhold til deres prognose på 730-780 - jeg havde faktisk troet vi havde lagt i den høje ende - men det ændre ikke på at det er et super flot rekord resultat !   At de vil betale udbytte på hele 30 kr. var til gengæld en overraskelse i den helt store positive ende af skalaen - umiddelbart troede jeg ikke de ville komme højere end 20 kr. - men de har virkelig ville forkæle aktionærerne.   Deres prognose på 330-430 mio. dollars synes jeg til gengæld er alt for lav og et meget konservativt udspil - det ligger langt under mine forventninger til 2023 - jeg tænker de  “nemt” burde komme over 500 - men måske er det bare et konservativt udspil, som nok er meget fornuftigt i disse uforudsigelige tider. På den anden side, så giver det jo mulighed for at lave “en del” opjusteringer i løbet af året - hvilket Norden jo har været kendt for.   Udbyttet for 2023 beregnet på deres konservative prognose på 330-430 mio. dollars - burde give et samlet udbytte for året 2023 på ca.40-50 kr. (ud fra mine små beregninger) - det er stadig et solidt udbytte i forhold til aktieprisen.   Aktien reagerede også meget positivt på regnskabet må man sige - jeg tænker dog vi så toppen for nu, da den i går og i dag var helt oppe og røre 440-442 - men er nu faldende, og i skrivende stund ca. 425 - jeg gætter på at vi lige nu ser investorer tage gevinst hjem. Og jeg tænker også at når det er sket, så vil vi se de her kendte store ned og opture i aktiens kurs. Jeg har derfor faktisk også valgt at tage en god gevinst hjem alene på kursen - så jeg har simpelthen solgt rub og stub af hvad jeg havde af D/S Norden - penge på sidelinien er gode at have lige pt. tror jeg. Jeg er bestemt ikke færdig med aktien - jeg regner da også med jeg skal ind og købe ind af dem igen - men jeg forventer faktisk at kursen kan falde en del den næste tid - det er jo en super volatil aktie - og jeg synes tidligere jeg netop har set den tendes efter et godt regnskab. Så lige nu sidder jeg faktisk og venter på et kursfald - og selv om det er et ordentligt ryk, så tror jeg faktisk vi kan komme under kurs 400, eller endda ned mod 380, her den kommende lille måneds tid. Kommer den det, så køber jeg igen - og tager udbyttet med  Om jeg og mavefornemmelsen får ret må tiden vise - det er ingen opfordring til andre om at sælge aktien - jeg kan meget nemt tage fuldstændig fejl !! Men verden er usikker - geopolitisk sker der alt for mange dramatiske ting pt. - ting som kan give kæmpe store bevægelser i markederne - Ruslands krig, Kinas balloner, inflationstal og renteforhøjelser (spændende hvad tallene siger den her uge - jeg tror godt der kan komme en skuffelse i markedet) - og her siger min mave fornemmelse bare at det måske ikke er dumt at være lidt mere forsigtig og afvente. Jeg tænker det giver nogle gode købsmuligheder generelt og mulighed for nogle gode swingtrade handler - også i D/S Norden ! Jeg stiller mig på sidelinien - men klapper begejstret over et super flot D/S Norden regnskab ! DISCLAMER : Jeg har dags dato ikke mere selv aktier i D/S Norden - men jeg regner med at købe ind igen i den kommende tid !  Ovenstående er blot mine egne analyser og betragtninger - det er på ingen måde anbefalinger om at købe eller sælge aktier i D/S Norden eller i relaterede selskaber eller sektorer !!

Hi Paul, I’m sure by now you have seen NORDEN’s results and have watched its webcast with HCA. It was great to understand the company’s expectations for 2023. The dry bulk will continue to be the main revenue driver here in H1 2022, and Martin gave valuable insight into how the embargo on product tankers is being administered. For now, it appears the embargo is adding to the tonne mile effect, and routes are being re-written. I will be closely following the movements of the Baltic Clean Tanker index over the coming days and weeks. It is clear the market will react to the tightness of implementation, with NORDEN pointing to the inventiveness of the market and the potential for loopholes. Only time will tell on this front. Next week we have more industry earnings which will also be valuable to follow with respect to forward guidance for product tankers. Today Russia announced a cut of 500,000 b/d in response to the embargo, A move I understand to be largely unexpected. Reduced market volume can reduce tightness from the tonne-mile effect, and we are fortunate to have earnings from other players throughout the month to understand how market conditions develop. I wonder whether Russia’s move is a result of its inability to sell its capacity rather than a pure retaliation. The below article from Shipping News suggests that India is running its refineries at full capacity, fed on cheap Russian crude. It will take time for markets to reach a new equilibrium, and that creates volatility. The next months will probably be a bumpy ride for shareholders of product tankers, NORDEN included. Where that equilibrium ends, we will see, but for now, tonne miles are increasing, and oil demand remains strong. I will keep paying attention and update the forum as events unfold.            twitter.com             Reuters Energy and Commodities @ReutersCommods     Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in March reuters.com/business/energ…      9:29 AM - 10 Feb 2023                                    25                                         8                                                    hellenicshippingnews.com              Product Tanker Market Expected to Face Structural Shift | Hellenic Shipping...

NORDEN publishes 2022 numbers ending with a full-year net profit of USD 744m, against the guidance of USD 730-780m. NORDEN’s Assets and Logistics division earned USD 193m, with its Freight Services and Trading earning USD 550m. The company also announced a further dividend of DKK 30 per share, taking its total dividends over 2022 to DKK 90 per share (equal to 57% of its annual result). Combined with share buybacks throughout the year, NORDEN returned USD 555m (74.6% of its net profit). The company announced 2023 guidance for a profit of USD 330-430m. It expects slightly improved results in its Assets and Logistics division and significantly lower Freight Services and Trading earnings, with product tankers driving most of these results. NORDEN’s positioning is now almost completely towards the product tanker segment as it expects a weaker 2023 in dry cargo against what was already a weak 2022. NORDEN remains short in the dry cargo segment in the short end, but it’s bullish at the longer end of the forward curve on expectations of China’s reopening driving demand in H2 2023. In its product tanker segment, NORDEN has secured more coverage than was average in 2022, with roughly 70% coverage. This might reduce volatility in its product tanker segment relative to 2022 and result in fewer guidance revisions. CFO Martin Badsted said in the earnings call that product tanker markets are starting to react to the European sanctions on Russian petroleum products, and in the short term, that is having a positive effect on tonne miles. The overhanging risk in the product tanker market is how tightly the embargo will be enforced.

D/S Norden får sænket i dag sit kursmål til 433 kr. fra 488 kr. af ABG. Anbefalingen er dog “køb”. … umiddelbart undre det mig - særligt her få dage før regnskabet og prognosen for 2023.

Tænkte jeg også lige ville komme med en lille opdatering på Norden - det er ved at være lang tid siden for min part - men heldigvis har Philip forkælet os med et rigtig interessant indlæg den 18. januar, som jeg har læst med stor interesse - tak for dine altid supergode og spændende input Philip - er sikker på at ikke kun jeg sætter stor pris på dem ! Umiddelbart synes jeg casen stadig er “on the right track”. Mange ting der taler for at Norden ser ud til at kunne fortsætte den positive vej de pt er på, og har været seneste år - og ja faktisk, synes jeg vejen ser ud til at fortsætte længere end vi måske havde turdet håbet på, i forhold til deres forretning og model - det er der mange ting der understøtter. Aktien har dog været presset her på det seneste - hvor den tog et ordentligt dyk - igen - for derefter at påbegynde en ny kursstigning. Det har vi set igen og igen - og det er jo nok en tendens vi særligt i rederi (og shipping) aktier må lære at affinde os med og leve med - det er super volatible aktier der farer op og ned - tit uden man forstår det - det kræver nogle gange stort mod og is i maven - selv føler jeg det er noget man lære at leve med - men nemt bliver det aldrig, når kursen dykker samtidig med “hovedet” siger noget helt andet. Et forum og gode dialoger som her på Inderes, er tilgengæld noget der er med til at give en lidt “ro på” og tryghed … det påskønner jeg selv meget  Men hvordan ser casen så pt. ud - ja her er mit bud :   Olieprisen har jo hoppet en del op og ned - men vi kom dog (for en periode) op i 80-82 dollar pr. tønde - som jeg mener er det leje vi pt. bør ligge i. Lige nu er den faldende - jeg tænker “bunden” pt. udfordres og vi nok snart kommer op i 80-82 igen.   D/S Norden kommer med årsregnskab 2022 den 10. februar - og det bliver godt !  Jeg synes meget indikere at det er gået Nordens vej - og forventer selv de lander i toppen af deres seneste opjustering fra 23. december der sagde 730-780 USD millioner. Jeg håber selv en kursstigningsperiode op til regnskabet.   Udbytte er svært at spå om - de har jo allerede betalt ekstra i år - jeg har prøvet lege med nogle beregninger som umiddelbart sagde 15-18 kr. Har hørt enkelt andre analytikere snakke 20 kr. Så et udbytte i intervallet 15-20 kr. lyder vel ikke helt forkert eller ? Det bliver super spændende hvad Norden melder ud om dette på fredag !   Aktietilbagekøb - D/S Norden har i gode år haft gode aktietilbagekøbs programmer - mon ikke også de forkæler aktionærerne med mere af dette - spændende om de gør !   Udbyttebetaling / Generalforsamling - Generalforsamlingen finder i år sted 9. marts - og vi må formode at udbyttet udbetales kort tid efter.   … men det mest spændende med årsregnskabet bliver dog forventninger til 2023 !   Forventninger til 2023 - jeg tror de bliver gode - men jeg tror Norden vil ligge forsigtigt ud. Godt nok er det et meget rentabelt marked - der skovles jo penge ind på tank siden - men meget kan jo ændre sig, grundet krigen i Ukraine / geopolitik.   Jeg tænker dog at den positive udvikling i tank fortsætter - det underbygges bla. af nye sanktioner for raffineret olie, der træder i kraft mod Rusland, i dag 5. februar.   Samtidig har G7 og EU landene i fredags, vedtaget nye prislofter for en række raffinerede russiske olieprodukter - såsom diesel og fyringsolie mm. Igen må det gavne D/S Norden tænker jeg - særligt på den lange bane.  Vestlige lande vedtager prislofter på russiske brændstoffer   Rederiet Torm tror også på en fortsat god udvikling i tank i årene frem - ja faktisk har de netop været ude og købe 7 nye skibe - analytikere har også hævet kursmålet.   Rederiet Hafnia har også været ude og snakke lidt fremtid - her regner man med tankmarkedet forbliver yderst profitabel frem til 2025 - jeg skal ikke modsige dem.   Tørlast siden har dog haltet - indexset er helt i bund - men det betyder jo blot, at der nok venter en god optur netop på dette område - jeg tænker tørlast faktisk kan blive en god forretning i 2023 - og her bør Norden også stå godt i markedet - og med deres gode købmandskab og ledelse, så tror jeg helt sikkert de er meget opmærksomme på tørlast markedet, og den potentielle optur der muligvis venter der.   Kina er ved at være over det værste i deres Covid-bølge - de vil gøre meget for at få gang i produktion og handel igen - mon ikke der bliver boostet økonomisk - det bør øge olieefterspørgslen og få mere gang i verdenshandlen - hvilket ikke kun vil gavne rederierne, men også shippingbranchen (men det er en helt anden historie).   Inflationen er toppet - måske viser det sig at det hele slet ikke er så slemt som det så ud - jeg tænker selv vi kommer langt hurtigere tilbage til “næsten normale” tider igen end vi lige nu går og forestiller os. Jeg tænker også markedet kan stå foran en euforisk periode, når først dette billede begynder at tegne sig - men hvor langt vi skal hen - og op - er så det store spørgsmål - der skal nok komme både hysteriske opture - og fald - det volatile marked fortsætter tænker jeg - spænd sikkerhedsselen !   Rente forhøjelserne begynder vi også stille og roligt at kunne begynde at se enden på - det bliver godt for aktiemarkedet    Interessant læsning kunne være McQuillings 2023-2027 Tanker Market Outlook.  Uddrag herfra, blev bragt på Hellenic Shipping News den 4. februar :  McQuilling: Tanker Earnings To Improve Over the 2024-25 Period … og hvor lander det os så i forhold til D/S Nordens forventninger for 2023 ?  Ja de gode ting i fremtiden står jo nærmest i kø - med mine briller på - og de kan sagtens være for optimistiske ! Men selv holder jeg fast i dem - og jeg vil ikke være overrasket over at D/S Norden melder en 2023 forventning ud på ca. 500 USD millioner. (Og dermed også en god udbyttebetaling for året 2023 - mon +50-60 kr. er realistisk?) Jeg vil dog ikke være overrasket over at resultatet bliver langt bedre - nærmere +700 USD millioner - men firmaet er nogle gange lidt konservativ i deres udmeldinger - hvilket jeg faktisk sætter stor pris på - det er en god ting i et meget svært marked - respekt for deres altid seriøse tilgang og gode købmandskab !  Mit bud : Et super godt år venter D/S Norden  DISCLAMER : Jeg har selv aktier i D/S Norden - ovenstående er blot mine egne analyser og betragtninger - det er på ingen måde anbefalinger om at købe aktier i D/S Norden eller i relaterede selskaber eller sektorer !!

Hi Paul, your content is great as always. I am going to share my latest thoughts on the product tanker market. I will also copy this into a broader shipping thread, which can broaden the discussion to also include the other Nordic shipping companies and to not clutter the NORDEN thread with broader market ideas. I hope you will join me in this new thread  Latest thoughts on the product tanker market Markets have been speculating lately about how the upcoming ban on Russian clean products will affect product tanker markets and, in turn, the share prices of product tanker owners and operators. In the final months of 2022, product tanker rates surged, resulting in related stocks also performing well. Many market analysts expected rates would remain high into 2023 as the EU’s ban on Russian clean oil products is to come into effect on 5th Feb 2023. However, the Baltic Clean Tanker index shows rates have significantly retreated so far in 2023 (see below). A possible explanation for the fall in product tanker rates is reduced European gasoline demand from a warmer-than-expected winter, in combination with Europe maximising Russian import volumes ahead of the February 5th deadline, importing 1m b/d so far in January, as reported by shipping news (Product Tankers and Diesel Supply for the EU: What to Expect? | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide) The ban, therefore, raises two questions, what will Russia do with its supply no longer flowing to Europe, and, where will Europe cover the lost supply from? Investigating the first question, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas recently reported that Russia’s export capacity through 2022 was incredibly robust through 2022, with Blas highlighting that despite repeated EU sanctions, Russia exited 2022 pumping 11.2m b/d in total oil liquids, down just 1.6% (or 190k b/d) from pre-invasion levels. Russia has largely maintained its export levels by redirecting exports to destinations such as India. An interesting point of note is that some new destinations for Russian oil and oil products have seen their exports increase as some of the Russian product is sold back to Europe under the label of a “friendly” nation.  Javier Blas suggests India might be doing this in the below tweet and also references the fact that Malaysian exports to China reached 3x Malaysia’s output capacity as evidence for relabelling. [1] [2]            twitter.com             Javier Blas @JavierBlas     Russia exited 2022 pumping 11.2m b/d in total oil liquids, down just 1.6% (or 190k b/d) from pre-invasion levels.  And the @IEA has once again lifted its short-term view for Russia. For example, last month it said output would drop to ~10.5m b/d in January. Now, it sees >11m b/d. twitter.com/JavierBlas/sta…                     Javier Blas @JavierBlas               The biggest surprise of the 2022 oil market vs consensus (and so far of the 2023 too) is the resilience of Russian crude oil production, barely down from pre-invasion of Ukraine levels | #OOTT #Russia           2:15 PM - 18 Jan 2023                                    96                                         30                                            twitter.com             Javier Blas @JavierBlas     India is binging on Russian crude oil.   (and yes, it's also true that some of that crude, after it's refined in India, is making the way back to the West as diesel and other petroleum products) #OOTT twitter.com/Petro_Logistic…                     Petro-Logistics @Petro_Logistics               India's imports of Russian crude oil rose to the highest level on record in December, bringing Russia's share of total imports to almost 25%! #OOTT #Russia           11:19 AM - 20 Jan 2023                                    330                                         110                                            twitter.com             Javier Blas @JavierBlas     CHART OF THE DAY: Freshly updated with December data released this morning (with a big🤥 warning ).  China claims it imported a record >1.3m b/d of **Malaysian** oil in Dec 2022. Yes, that's almost triple the real output of Malaysia. The reality? Black market oil | #OOTT @Opinion https://t.co/cnBcima4vj      7:27 AM - 20 Jan 2023                                    850                                         250                                  With an EU ban on Russian clean products, Russia will need to find a new destination for its exports to Europe and will lose access to a fleet of European vessels. The evidence presented by Blas suggests that, in the long-run, Russia is likely to resolve these issues and maintain exports at near pre-war levels. However, in the short-run Russian exports of oil products may fall, negatively impacting the product tanker market and the supply of vessels transporting non-Russian oil products could increase, also bringing a negative impact. However, over a longer-term time horizon, the market is likely to re-establish equilibrium with Russian exports moved by non-European vessels.  The most significant effect over the longer term is a redirection of flows, leading to an increase in tonne miles as Russia ships its oil products to “friendly” nations such as India further afield. Europe will also need to source its oil products from further afield with the Russian tap firmly closed, also adding to the tonne mile effect. So where will Europe turn? The below report by SPGlobal shows that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has relied heavily on the US to supply increased volumes of oil products.  Europe still buying over quarter of diesel imports from Russia ahead of new curbs | S&P Global Commodity Insights. However, Blas also reported last week that during the second week of January, the US didn’t release any oil from its SPR reserve, suggesting the US should not be looked to make up for the pending deficit. This suggests that Europe will have to go further afield in search of its oil products, increasing the tonne mile effect in the process. The big unknown will be whether Europe is willing to import relabelled Russian clean products, potentially via turkey, as suggested by Bloomberg, or North Africa as suggested by Shippingnews, or whether new flows will come from the gulf or elsewhere in Asia.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-13/where-will-europe-get-its-diesel-from-in-23-days-time                  hellenicshippingnews.com              Product Tankers and Diesel Supply for the EU: What to Expect? | Hellenic...                              In addition to the tonne mile effect the China reopening should also be positive and MarineLink recently published an article suggesting that jet fuel trade could increase significantly as a result and end 2023 just 5-10% short of pre-pandemic levels, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25-30% and as much as a 2% boost to the overall clean petroleum product’ volume. The China reopening will likely provide continued demand-side support, I have previously discussed this view in relation to the household savings rates.                  MarineLink – 18 Jan 23              Product Tankers Poised to Profit from Jet Fuel Rebound    The airline industry has been hit hard during the COVID-19 pandemic and seaborne jet fuel cargo volumes suffered along with it. In…                             Overall I see there being short-term uncertainties but expect that Russia’s supply will find a new home with time. I think the China reopening story is a large demand-side support, which should outweigh recession fears, and when you consider the tonne mile dynamics and low vessel supply growth, the market conditions should remain favourable. I also saw this view expressed recently by Poten & Partners (link below). However, there are also uncertainties, one of which is a question of how much of these dynamics are already priced into the market, and I think the big unknown is how strict Europe will be regarding relabelled Russian products. I would love to hear alternative views and for people to share opinions, and even more so if they are contradictory.           twitter.com             TheGodFatherKnows @smantel     $STNG $ASC $TRMD $INSW Poten's 2023 Predictions: "Product tanker market will outperform crude tanker market ...ton-mile demand... LR1 & LR2 moves from Asia. MRs ...boost from increased transatlantic moves to Europe." US Crude exports to reach new records. 🧐credit: @ed_fin https://t.co/qXA0xT4LOD      5:46 PM - 14 Jan 2023                                    13                                         2

… og man kunne lige tilføje, at D/S Norden pr. 17. januar 2023 ejer 9,26 % af egne aktier. Aktuelt har de gang i et aktietilbagekøbsprogram på samlet 380 mio. kr.  Indtil videre er der opkøbt egne aktier for 275 mio. kr. Programmet afsluttes 7. februar 2023.

D/S Norden

Dagens aktienyheder 12/02: Sampo plc og DS NORDEN

Dagens aktienyheder 12/02: Sampo plc og DS NORDEN Det tidligere annoncerede aktiesplit i Sampo plc i forholdet 1:4 er nu gennemf&#xf8;rt. Det vil sige at eksisterende aktion&#xe6;rer har eller vil modtage 4 stk. nye Sampo-aktier for hver eksisterende Sampo-aktie. Derfor handler aktien nu ogs&#xe5; p&#xe5; ca. 1/5 af det tidligere kursniveau &#x2013; dvs. omkring EUR 8,12 som var lukkekursen i g&#xe5;r kontra det tidligere kursniveau omkring EUR 40 pr. aktie. Vores finske samarbejdspartner Inderes havde i sin seneste Sampo-analyse anbefalingen Akkumul&#xe9;r med et kursm&#xe5;l p&#xe5; EUR 43 pr. aktie. Korrigeres der for aktiesplit er det nye kursm&#xe5;l p&#xe5; EUR 8,6 pr. aktie. Du kan l&#xe6;se hele analysen her: <a href="https://www.inderes.dk/research/sampo-q424-udsigten-til-udlodninger-er-mere-generos-end-for" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.inderes.dk/research/sampo-q424-udsigten-til-udlodninger-er-mere-generos-end-for</a> Efter regnskabet fra <a class="UWjjKcMcBjzXoTHYxfJpnvoOGpQsJOeA " href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/ds-norden/" target="_self" data-test-app-aware-link>DS NORDEN</a> i sidste uge har vi opdateret vores one-pager p&#xe5; selskabet inkl. vores peer group med sammenlignelige selskaber indenfor produkttank og t&#xf8;rlast. Du kan l&#xe6;se mere her om hvordan 2024 forl&#xf8;b og hvilke forventninger NORDEN har til 2025: <a href="https://www.inderes.dk/research/norden-one-pager-tanker-market-weighs-on-outlook-as-owners-market-continues" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.inderes.dk/research/norden-one-pager-tanker-market-weighs-on-outlook-as-owners-market-continues</a> Disclaimer:&#xa0;HC Andersen Capital modtager betaling fra selskaberne for en Digital IR aftale. Rasmus K&#xf8;jborg, CFA - 12/02-2025 kl. 9:10