Hexicon’s Q4 report contained no major surprises. In the context of a challenging operating environment, the company continues to experience long divestment processes and negotiations. As a result, we expect the establishment of a long-term ownership structure for the MunmuBaram project, which could provide near-term financing and improve cash flow for project development, to be delayed until around summer 2025. In our view, the company needs additional capital in the coming months, forcing Hexicon to explore other financing options on uncertain terms. Against this backdrop, we believe the near-term risk/reward is unfavorable.
The current share price reflects very low market expectations, and with reduced short-term financial risks, we believe this presents a potential contrarian opportunity for risk-tolerant investors.
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Our latest Danske Bank One-pager including an updated peer group of Nordic listed peers following the annual reports in recent weeks. Read the One-pager to get an update on the recent development in Danske Bank, its progress in closing its valuation gap with its peers, updates on the key investment risks, key investment reasons, and its Forward ’28 Strategy.
We made exceptionally large estimate cuts for the short and medium term, as we adopted a more pessimistic view on the recovery of Renewable Products' margins and consider the postponement of the Rotterdam expansion. With our updated forecasts, we believe the stock's lower expected return is not sufficient to cover the risks of the distant upside potential, especially considering the weakened financial position.
Tietoevry's Q4 was slightly weaker than our low expectations. The market environment remains challenging and the guidance points to a similar performance as last year, after which we expect the company to return to a better earnings growth path. The company also said that the strategic review of Tech Service will be completed in March, but there is more pressure on the selling price than before.
Following the full-year report, we have updated our investment case one-pager, including an updated overview of the peer group. Besides valuation perspectives and the 2025 expectations, the investment case one-pager introduces GomSpace and highlights key investment reasons and risks.
HKFoods’ result has improved clearly due to efficiency investments and focusing on Finland. We expect earnings growth to moderate in the coming years. The timing of the redemption of the hybrid bond remained unclear, with the Board proposing a substantial return of capital to shareholders. We do not find the risk/reward ratio particularly attractive compared to other companies in the sector, although earnings growth continuing stronger than we estimate could change the situation.
Exel's operational development in Q4 was broadly in line with our expectations, as the company's result improved from a weak comparison period, albeit still at a low level.
NIBE’s Q4 result was operationally slightly above our expectations, and we made minor upside revisions to our short- and medium-term estimates. The company's outlook and market indicators continue to show signs of a recovery in the destocking situation. However, the recovery will likely be slow, as at least the first half of this year will remain challenging, due to continued excess inventories in some markets and a slow recovery in consumer confidence and purchasing power as well as in the new-construction market. Additionally, while volume growth and cost-cutting efforts are expected to support margins, we anticipate continued headwinds from high inventory and pricing risks. In our view, given the ongoing uncertainties in the operating environment, the stock is already sufficiently priced for earnings growth (2025e P/E: 29x).
In Q4, sales of the key wealth management solutions that drive Mandatum's value creation were again at an excellent level, with improved cost efficiency underpinning the earnings growth. A successful end to the year therefore led to an upward revision of our earnings forecasts. We also increased our profit distribution projections.
Harvia's Q4 revenue grew very strongly and faster than expected, but the result fell short of expectations and the comparison period due to, e.g., campaigns and marketing investments. However, we believe that the margin dip is temporary.
We have not made any material changes to our forecasts for the commercialization progress of Spinnova's technology portfolio since the company's H2 report. In our view, the share still offers positive expected value considering the company's current market capitalization and the trajectory of our estimates, even though the range of different scenarios is wide and the realization of the story will require time and positive news flow from H1.
There were no major surprises in the H2 report and, as expected, 2025 will be a gap year for earnings growth after a robust 2024. Valuation is neutral on our forecasts, and we see no upward drivers for the share price before a return to earnings growth.
The Q4 report was broadly in line with our expectations and the big picture of our forecasts is unchanged. We expect the company to deliver strong earnings growth, and the stock is not expensive relative to that. If our earnings forecasts are realized, we believe the expected return is good and the high dividend limits downside risk.