Incap's Q3 was exactly what we expected.

We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation for Incap with a target price of EUR 13.50. Incap's Q2 developed fully in line with our expectations as the quarterly turnaround progressed, especially with the recovery of deliveries to the largest customer. We did not make any forecast changes after the report. Incap's earnings trend is turning upward in H2, against which the stock is still moderately priced (2025e: EV/EBIT 8x). Thus, the stock's expected return is attractive over the one-year and medium-term horizons.

Since the rocket-like growth at the start of the decade, the company has faced a pressure test in the past quarters due to the destocking of the largest customer, but we feel Incap is passing the test with flying colors.

Incap had a much better start to the year than we expected, with deliveries to the largest customer already recovering well from the Q4 lows, according to our estimates, and other customers maintaining organic growth.