Starbreeze Q4’24 preview: PAYDAY 3’s second year on the market remains a question mark

Starbreeze will release its Q4 report on Tuesday, February 18. We expect Q4 revenue to remain at a low level with somewhat challenging year-on-year comparisons due to the timing of the PD3 launch. We also expect continued cash flow pressures in the quarter due to negative earnings and high investment levels. There are still limited details surrounding PAYDAY 3’s (“PD3”) second year and therefore management’s commentary on this topic will be of particular interest in the Q4 report, as well as the latest development of Project Baxter. While we still see 2025 as a transitional year for PD3, the agreement with KRAFTON alleviates cash flow pressures, putting the company in a stronger position for its 2026 release. Given the currently low expectations for PD3, as reflected in the valuation, any meaningful uptick in player activity could provide support for the share price at current levels.

We expect Q4 to be in line with the previous quarter

With all four major DLC’s from PD3’s one-year roadmap released before Q4, the fourth quarter has mostly involved free content updates, limited-time campaigns, and gameplay improvement. However, player activity on Steam (the only available source) has remained low.

We estimate Q4 revenue at 43 MSEK, consistent with the previous quarter. Our model does not factor in any impact from the KRAFTON partnership for this quarter, as we expect it to take effect from Q1’25 onward. We expect PD3 revenue to reach 26 MSEK (Q3’24: 23 MSEK), while PD2 sales are projected to decline to 9 MSEK (Q3’24: 11.5 MSEK While increased player activity quarter-on-quarter could provide some upside to our PAYDAY 2 estimate (~1-3 MSEK), we recognize that player engagement does not perfectly correlate with sales, especially in the absence of new paid DLCs. Additionally, we anticipate third-party publishing revenue to show a small uptick to 7 MSEK (Q3’24: 6 MSEK) supported by content updates in Roboquest.

As Starbreeze continues its investments in PD3 while simultaneously advancing Project Baxter toward its planned 2026 launch, we expect the SG&A cost base to remain stable quarter-over-quarter. However, with PD3 now entering (from Q4 and onwards) its second year on the market, we anticipate a lower amortization level in Q4 as the most significant D&A costs related to game development are now behind. On this topic, we expect a more substantial drop from Q1’25 and onwards. As a result, our Q4 EBIT estimate stands at -50 MSEK (Adj EBIT Q3’24: -63 MSEK). The positive working capital effects experienced from the collection of PD3-related receivables from PLAION in H1’24 are expected to further diminish, and we anticipate cash flow pressures in Q4 due to negative earnings and sustained investment levels.

Limited visibility on PD3’s second year

Our FY2025 revenue estimates remain unchanged at 204 MSEK (FY2024e: 183 MSEK) with an EBIT estimate of -7 MSEK (Adj EBIT FY2024e: -227 MSEK). These estimates reflect a continued deceleration in player activity and game revenue year-on-year, based on current sentiment and outlook for the PAYDAY franchise. The expected revenue growth compared to 2024 primarily stems from Starbreeze’s recently established partnership with KRAFTON. This work-for-hire agreement allows Starbreeze to receive cost coverage plus a margin for a quarter of its development organization over a year. We estimate this partnership will contribute 60–70 MSEK in additional revenue in 2025, which should help mitigate cash outflows during what we expect to be a transitional year ahead of the next major game release in 2026.

However, concrete details regarding PAYDAY 3’s second-year roadmap remain limited. While upcoming features such as Offline Mode and Armor 2.0 appear to be within reach, the pace and scale of future heist releases remain uncertain. We hope the Q4 report will provide more clarity on this aspect. Additionally, we will be closely monitoring any updates on Project Baxter’s development progress, particularly regarding potential partnership discussions.