CapMan is an investment company. The vision is to be a long-term owner and create added value for the shareholders in the long term. CapMan mainly invests in medium-sized unlisted companies, properties and infrastructure facilities around the Nordic market. Furthermore, the company offers asset management, purchasing activities as well as analysis, reporting and back office services. CapMan was founded in 1989 and its headquarters are in Helsinki, Finland.
CapMan's Q1 report was ultimately quite neutral. The market situation will continue to hamper new sales in the short term, but the strong earnings growth outlook for the next few years remains intact. Once earnings growth is realized, the stock will be cheap, but due to the uncertainty surrounding the realization of new sales, we are holding back on a stronger view for the time being. We reiterate our EUR 2.1 target price and Accumulate recommendation.
There were no changes to CapMan's financial targets or the timeline for achieving them at the Capital Markets Day, and the company is still aiming for EUR 10 billion in AUM by the end of 2027 (Q4'24: 6.1 BEUR). Otherwise, the event was very unsurprising, which, of course, is not a bad thing in the long-term asset management business. Thus, the strategy will continue to focus on the profitable scaling of the asset management business in the coming years. Scalability is particularly sought from personnel expenses, which should grow more slowly than business income as CapMan's investment areas are in a more mature phase.
Real estate has been one of the best performing asset classes in asset management over the past decade. This has been true for both investors and the companies that manage their investments.
The Q4 report was broadly in line with our expectations and the big picture of our forecasts is unchanged. We expect the company to deliver strong earnings growth, and the stock is not expensive relative to that. If our earnings forecasts are realized, we believe the expected return is good and the high dividend limits downside risk.
CapMan’s Q3 result fell sharply short of estimates, but in our view, there was no major drama behind the figures, as the miss came from investment operations. Despite the continued challenging fundraising market, we continue to expect strong earnings growth in the coming years, driven by a gradual increase in new sales as well as carried interest and investment income.
Under the new strategy, CapMan’s business operations have turned to strong growth and profitability has improved clearly. Even though the challenging market situation throws a spanner into the works of new sales in the short term, we believe the company has an excellent position in its sector. As a result, CapMan is well positioned to continue its healthy growth also in the longer term, just like the rest of the asset management sector.
CapMan announced on Friday that it will sell its Service business for a 75 MEUR debt-free price. Even though the price was below our previous estimate, our view of CapMan’s share value remains roughly unchanged. This is particularly explained by our increased estimate of the normal level of carried interest income.
CapMan reported mixed Q2 operational results. Management Business results exceeded our expectations, but we believe the earnings beat was mainly due to one-off items.
CapMan released better-than-expected Q1 figures. However, the EBIT overshoot due to performance fees flowed to the profit share attributable to minorities, so the net result was close to our forecast. In terms of the outlook, the company continued to be very optimistic, especially concerning new sales, and the year started off well for fundraising.
We have updated our CapMan forecast with the acquisition of Dasos Capital. As the transaction was executed at approximately CapMan’s multiples, it has no material impact on our EPS forecasts. We think the stock is cheap relative to the normal earnings level we have set for CapMan, but to get there will require a pick-up in new sales in particular.
CapMan's Q4 report was a clear disappointment and the whole year 2023 was also well below our expectations. Although we have lowered our short-term estimates, our view of the company's normal earnings profile has not changed materially. However, there is clear uncertainty about the timeframe for reaching the earnings level, mainly due to the sluggish market situation.
The Q3 result was in line with expectations and in the short term, the market situation will continue as challenging. We feel the surprising change in the dividend policy is a direct signal of preparing for M&A transactions. The investor story becomes more growth-driven as focus of capital allocation shifts, at least temporarily, from dividends to growth.
CapMan clearly reported a more modest Q2 result than we expected, which has led to a drastic decline in our earnings estimates for the coming years mainly in terms of heavily fluctuating investment and carried interest income
CapMan reported a much softer-than-expected Q1 results, and as a result, we lowered our earnings estimates for the coming years. However, there was no real drama in the results, as the most significant deviations from expectations were seen in investment and carried interest income, which are difficult to predict and fluctuate strongly between quarters.
CapMan's Q4 report was operationally well in line with expectations and the company continues to make strong progress despite the challenging market conditions.
Despite the challenging market situation, we expect strong performance from CapMan. Relative to this, the share valuation is not high. If our estimates materialize, low multiples and high dividend yield already offer a strong return on investment.
