Neste published its Q4’24 result last Thursday and especially Renenwable Products delivered a big disappointment. Analyst Petri Gostowski elaborates on the reasons behind this.

We made exceptionally large estimate cuts for the short and medium term, as we adopted a more pessimistic view on the recovery of Renewable Products' margins and consider the postponement of the Rotterdam expansion. With our updated forecasts, we believe the stock's lower expected return is not sufficient to cover the risks of the distant upside potential, especially considering the weakened financial position.

Neste’s Capital Markets Update, intended for analysts and investors, will be held on 13 February 2025 from 12.00 p.m. to 4.00 p.m. UTC in London, UK. The event will be in conjunction with the release of Neste’s financial statements for fiscal 2024. 

Neste: a new CEO is in place, but the short-term turmoil continues. The key uncertainty factors are the gross margin in Renewable Products and the current oversupply in the market. Valuation of the share is mixed and multiples very high with this year's weak performance - still long term potential. Analyst Petri Gostowski summarizes.