Ahead of Inderes’s Q1 report, we make no changes to our estimates. We think that strategy execution is progressing well in Finland, which should also see some market tailwinds in 2025. However, for the Swedish business, which holds the largest upside potential in our investment case, progress is slow (or in fact declining). Our fair value range is unchanged at EUR 19-21, with the mid-point translating into a 2027E adj. P/E of 10x.

Inderes’ Q4 report prompts us to cut our estimates more than the headline deviations indicate. While IR software continues its solid growth, the commissioned research base took a step down. The company is now re-shaping its Swedish playbook, which we read as slower growth in 2025. The positives included cash flow (2024 FCF yield of 8%) and a thawing IPO market. Our fair value range is trimmed to EUR 19-21 (20-22).

Inderes's Q4 sales and EBITA came in slightly below our estimates. Our first take is that the Swedish event business and the Finnish research business developed weaker than expected while IR software drove the modest growth at the group level. Guidance suggests growth and improving margin for 2025, but our first read is that estimates are under pressure driven by a decreased research agreement base. DPS in line at EUR 0.87.