We have updated our short- and medium-term forecasts for NIBE, in the light of a slower-than-expected European heat pump market. While we still believe the market has largely bottomed out, driven by the normalization of inventories at the distribution level in most European markets, a meaningful recovery is likely to take time to materialize due to a slow recovery in consumer confidence and purchasing power, as well as in the new-build market. In our view, short-term drivers remain weak and the stock is already sufficiently priced in for high earnings growth (2025e P/E: 28x).

NIBE’s Q3 result was operationally slightly below our expectations, and we made small revisions to our short- and medium-term estimates. However, the company's outlook continues to show signs of a recovery in the destocking situation, but overall, the current year and at least the first half of next year will still be challenging. Eventually, demand at the manufacturer level will better correspond to underlying end consumer demand and the normalization of capacity utilization and the cost savings program should provide leverage for profitability improvements in the medium term. In our view, given the ongoing uncertainties in the operating environment, the stock is already sufficiently priced in for earnings growth (2025e P/E: 29x).

NIBE will be publishing its Q3 results on Friday at 8.00 am CEST. The results are expected to be weaker than last year's relatively strong figures, due to a decline in revenue.

NIBE's Q2 results came in below our expectations, leading us to revise our estimates downward. However, the company's outlook suggests that the market has bottomed out, supported by the end of destocking and anticipated declines in interest rates, which should boost consumer demand. Medium-term valuation multiples (2025: P/E: 26x and EV/EBIT: 20x) align with the company's long-term medians and appear neutral in our view. Considering this, and a combination of earnings growth and dividends, should give around 10-15% total shareholder return, exceeding our required return.

NIBE will report its Q2 results on Friday at 8.00 CEST. We expect NIBE’s Q2 results to be weaker than the strong comparison figures due to a decline in revenue. While NIBE does not offer specific numerical guidance, the company usually shares commentary on market activity and provides some insight into future expectations. We expect the company to maintain the outlook it gave in its Q1 report, indicating that destocking will conclude by Q2 and that demand will gradually improve in the second half of the year. Our primary focus will be on updates regarding demand and the destocking situation, as we view these as the key highlights of the upcoming Q2 report.

NIBE's Q1 results were operationally below our expectations, and we have lowered our short-term estimates. However, the company's outlook shows signs of a recovery in the destocking situation in H2'24, but overall the current year will still be challenging. Eventually, the market will pick up and the normalization of capacity utilization and the cost savings program should provide leverage for profitability improvements in the medium term. In our view, given the ongoing uncertainties in the operating environment and current interest rate expectations, the stock is already sufficiently priced in for earnings growth (2025e P/E: 30x).