We examined Nordic, listed IT service companies with the 'Rule of 20' metric we launched, measured with which a few companies achieved excellent performance in 2024. On average, Finnish IT service companies fared worse last year than other Nordic companies. Overall, however, it can be said that 2024 was still challenging throughout the Nordics.

Looking at the year as a whole, the difficult market situation is illustrated by the fact that none of the listed companies in the IT service sector achieved excellent or even good performance according to the Rule of 20 we have introduced.

We are launching our own Rule of 20 for the IT services sector, which we believe works well, if not best, as a single parameter to measure the operational performance of the sector and especially of the companies.

In the coming year, companies should be able to see who has adapted to the changing market situation and whose strategy is working.

The IT services sector's Q3 results were met with a cautious mood after five companies in the sector issued profit warnings in just over a month. The decline in working day-adjusted organic revenue development for the sector's companies accelerated slightly as customers continued to economize, although the comparison period was already weak for most of them. Profitability, on the other hand, was significantly higher year-on-year, but the group was clearly divided between strong and weak performers.

In the rest of the Nordic countries, organic revenue development turned upwards and profitability was at a reasonably good level in Q2.

With the Q2 reports and subsequent earnings warnings, our revenue and profitability expectations have declined slightly. The expected strengthening of the general economic development in Finland and Europe and the interest rate cuts provide some light at the end of the tunnel and create the conditions for a gradually improving demand outlook also for the IT services sector next year.

Finnish listed IT services companies' organic revenue decline accelerated slightly, although the comparison period was already weak for several of them.

The strengthening of the general economic situation in Finland and Europe and the expected decline in interest rates provide some light at the end of the tunnel and, in our opinion, create the conditions for a gradually improving demand outlook also for the IT services sector next year.

The organic revenue development of the Finnish listed IT service companies took a downturn from a strong comparison period. At the same time, profitability declined from the good comparison period, although slightly less than expected, helped by cost savings.

We estimate that listed IT service companies will grow moderately in 2024, but well below historical growth rates. Overall, our expectations for 2024 are generally at the lower end of companies' guidance.

Uncertainty in customer demand was realized more widely in Q2, but development was even more mixed than before. Companies with a high weight of tailored software development and the private sector suffered more in relative terms. Reported figures included mainly negative surprises, which was also seen in the form of change negotiations and profit warnings. We predict that the duality will continue in 2023, but the demand outlook will remain more subdued as a whole in 2023 in the private sector, while public sector demand is expected to remain at a good level.